I have a theory that voter turnout in the primaries may be a leading indicator for the general election, so I’ve decided to test my theory with this primary season.  Long before the pundits started taking notice of voter turnout in the primaries, I started tracking the results.

Forget the polls.  For years they have proven to be less reliable than a 10-day weather forecast.  Why?  One plausible explanation is it’s a lot easier to “vote” for a candidate in the comfort of your own home when a pollster calls, than to figure out where your polling station is, go to it, wait in line and cast your ballot.  (The fact that voter turnout is affected by the weather would seem to bear that out).  Here in Texas, if you are 65 or older, you can vote by mail and I know a few folks who do it and love it.  Early voting too, has proven popular, most likely because voting is spread out over a number of days, reducing the wait time.  Mail-in and early voting reduces the hassle factor.  Unless and until voting is allowed by installing an app on your favorite smart phone, polls will continue to be inaccurate.  I think voter turnout in the primaries – by party affiliation – will be a better predictor of the general election results this election cycle.

The table below is designed to predict which party will have the largest turnout in the general election by tracking the voter turnout in each primary/caucus.  It only considers the voter turnout in the 50 States and the District of Columbia.  Primary vote tallies in non-states (e.g., Puerto Rico, American Samoa) are not counted here, because the people of those territories are not eligible to vote for president in the general election.  (Theoretically, they have an influence over a party’s nominee since they select delegates to the national convention, but that’s not what this post is about).  A blank space for a party’s voter turnout in a particular state means that they haven’t held their primary/caucus yet.  Since the different parties hold some of their state primaries/caucuses on different dates, the true reflection of cumulative voter turnout is not possible until all primary/caucus results are in.

In some cases, state political parties have decided to hold state conventions or other processes in which voter turnout is not available.  Consequently in those instances, no number is assigned to that party’s voter turnout for each such state.

Below the table are notes on the updates to the table as the primary season progresses.

Updated November 9, 2016.  Well, it looks like my theory was correct, voter turnout in in the primaries predicted the winner of the general election!  Interestingly, it also predicted that Mr. Trump would win in many of the swing states, including Florida, North Carolina and Michigan as well as others.

Updated June 25, 2016.  I added columns to reflect the allocation of electoral votes if the party with the largest voter turnout in the primaries also has the largest voter turnout in the general election.  I gave the benefit of the doubt to the Democrats and allocated electoral votes to them for states that did not report raw vote totals.  Even with that biased allocation, the Republicans won 295 electoral votes and the Democrats 253 – to win the Presidential Election a candidate only needs 270.

Updated June 9, 2016.  Since the update of May  12, primaries/caucuses were held in 9 states and 2 territories – Kentucky (Dem.), Oregon, Washington State (Rep.), Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico (both Dem.), California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota.  Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico were not included in the count since residents there cannot vote in the general election.

Updated May 12, 2016.  On May 3rd, Democrats and Republicans held primaries in Indiana.  On May 10th, Republicans and Democrats held primaries in West Virginia, and Republicans held a primary in Nebraska.

Updated April 25, 2016.  For the first time today, one of the major networks (Fox News) displayed the total voter turnout for the Republicans and for the Democrats, in line with my calculations.

Updated April 20, 2016.  On April 19, 2016, the Democrats and Republicans held primaries in New York.

Updated April 17, 2016.  On April 5, 2016 the Democrats and Republicans held their primaries in Wisconsin.  On April 8, 2016 the Republicans held a state convention in Colorado to select delegates to the national convention.  There are no official tallies of voter turnout, so no number is assigned in the table.  On April 9, 2016, the Democrats held caucuses to select delegates to their state convention in Wyoming.  There are no official tallies of voter turnout, so no numbers are assigned in the table.

Updated March 27, 2016.  On March 26, 2016 the Democrats held primaries/caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington.  According to the Huffington Post, the Alaskan Democratic Party does report vote counts.  Instead, it reports the number of State Convention Delegates.  However, the Alaska Dispatch News reported that over 10,600 people turned out for the caucuses.  It is therefore assumed that less than 10,700 showed up; consequently, we gave the Democrats the benefit of the doubt and listed the voter turnout at 10,699 – still less than the 21,000 turn out of the Republicans for that state.

* The table lists the NY Times as the source for the Alaska voter turnout – that is only true for the Republican voter turnout.  The Alaska Dispatch News was used as the best estimate of the voter turnout for the Democrat Caucus.

Updated March 23, 2016.  On March 22, 2016 both parties held primaries/caucuses in Arizona and Utah.  The Democrat Party held a caucus in Idaho that same day (the Republican Party held their primary in Idaho on March 8th).

Updated March 19, 2016.  On March 15, 2016, both parties held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.  This past week, media pundits started to take notice of the discrepancy of voter turnout between the parties.  The total voter turnout so far has the Republicans ahead of the Democrats by over 5 Million.  But, this past week it was mentioned on at least one of the major cable news channel that so far more people have voted for the Democratic front-runner (Clinton) than the Republican front runner (Trump).  This may be due to the fact that Republican voters had more candidates running.  Now that only three Republican candidates are left, it will be interesting to see if the gaps narrow in (a) total voter turnout, and (b) voter turnout for the front runners.

Updated March 6, 2016.  On March 5, 2016, the Republicans held primaries or caucuses in 4 states; the Democrats in 3.  On March 6, there were two primaries, 1 for each party.  The Republican primary was held in Puerto Rico – that territory selects delegates to the convention, but the people of Puerto Rico cannot vote in the general election, so that vote tally is not counted here.  The Democrats held a primary in Maine on March 6th.

Updated March 2, 2016.  On March 1, 2016, “Super Tuesday,” both parties held primaries in most of the same states but not all.  Democrats held a caucus in Colorado and the Republicans held a caucus in Alaska.  In all, each party held elections in 11 states.  There was also a primary/caucus in American Samoa, but the people of American Samoa cannot vote in the general election, so that vote tally is not counted here.

Updated February 27, 2016.  On February 20, 2016, the Republicans held their primary in South Carolina, and the Democrats in Nevada.  On February 24, the Republicans held their primary in Nevada.  On February 27, the Democrats will hold their primary in South Carolina.

I’m Ed, and I’m just sayin’…